The White House has asked the Pentagon to develop options for new U.S. strikes on Iran that could be carried out before the November 3 midterm elections, according to two administration officials cited by The Atlantic on Wednesday. No final decision has been made. Officials said the planning reflects President Donald Trump’s desire to show progress in the war and help bring down gas prices before voters go to the polls. More extensive military action is also under consideration for after the election.
The request comes after months of on-again, off-again fighting, and after several weeks in which the United States has not struck Iran. The lull has coincided with the closing stretch of the midterm campaign, and the prevailing assumption in Washington has been that Trump would want to preserve it through November 3 rather than remind voters of an unpopular war that is weighing on Republican candidates nationwide, The Atlantic reported. Administration officials told the magazine the opposite may now be true.
What Planners Are Weighing
U.S. Central Command, which coordinates the war effort, is developing the plans, a U.S. official said. The size and targets of the potential strikes, and whether the administration will proceed at all, are still being debated. Even the plans’ advocates concede that limited strikes would not on their own bring Iran to the negotiating table, restore safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, or lower gas prices before Election Day.
Supporters argue the value is political and symbolic. Further action after months of uneasy quiet could let Trump project strength and potentially declare some form of victory, giving Republicans momentum heading into the vote. “It would make the president look like he got a win and that gas prices would start going down,” a Republican familiar with the deliberations said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
A limited operation could be followed by more substantial military action after the midterms, when Trump has suggested the conflict, now in its eighth month, could resume. The Atlantic also reported that the Pentagon has presented options for after the election ranging from limited attacks to a broader campaign that could include additional strikes on Iran’s energy industry. A White House official told the magazine that Trump “has all options available at any time,” but did not answer questions about the timing of any strikes.
Separate reporting published Wednesday evening indicated that the Pentagon instructed Central Command several days ago to finish preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran. The directive did not include a date, and Trump has made no final decision. “The Department’s job is to develop and present military options to the President,” a Pentagon official said. An Israeli official described the odds of action before the election as low but not zero. “The chances of it happening before the elections is not high but we don’t rule it out. After the midterms the chances of it happening increase significantly,” the official said.
How the War Reached This Point
The conflict began February 28, when the United States and Israel launched air and missile strikes on Iran. Iran responded by choking off commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the passage that carried roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil before the war. U.S. gasoline prices climbed sharply, from roughly $3 a gallon before the war to above $4 by spring.
A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire took hold April 8, but talks in Islamabad failed and the U.S. Navy began blockading Iranian ports April 13. A June memorandum of understanding was meant to reopen the strait and end the blockade, but the ceasefire collapsed July 8 after attacks by both sides.
The administration has since shifted toward economic pressure. On August 24, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent launched Operation Economic Outcast, which a Treasury press release described as “a whole-of-government economic campaign against Iran and its enablers.” On October 1, Treasury sanctioned three Iranian railway companies and the country’s automotive sector.
Hormuz Remains the Sticking Point
The week before the Atlantic report brought a surge in attacks on shipping. Maritime intelligence firm Marisks counted at least seven tanker incidents in the past week, including a strike on the Kuwaiti-flagged supertanker Kazimah III on October 1 that started a fire on board. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has recorded at least one attack a day in or near the strait since October 2. Gulf oil exporters nonetheless topped prewar export levels for about half of September, Reuters reported, as producers made greater use of alternative routes.
Diplomacy has shown little movement. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Monday that talks with Washington were meaningless. “We have been attacked three times so far following talks, and this shows that they are not seeking dialogue; rather, their goal is to overthrow the Islamic Republic,” he said. Trump has since rejected Tehran’s proposed conditions for reopening the strait while leaving open both further talks and renewed military operations.
Gas Prices and the Midterm Math
Fuel costs are the pressure point driving the political calculation. The U.S. Energy Information Administration put the weekly national average for regular gasoline at $4.157 a gallon for the week ending September 7. Two days later, Trump told reporters the war would end “immediately after the election” and that gasoline would then fall below $2 a gallon.
Public opinion has not favored the war. A Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed August 24 found 31% of Americans supported U.S. military action against Iran, the lowest reading since the early days of the conflict, and Trump’s approval stood at 33%, the lowest recorded in the polling firm’s surveys across both of his terms. Some 83% said they expected the war to last an extended period. Independent voters favored Democrats over Republicans 33% to 19% in congressional voting preference.
An earlier Reuters/Ipsos poll, completed May 11, found that three-quarters of the public, including half of Republicans, believed the administration bears at least a fair amount of responsibility for the gas price surge. Republicans are defending narrow congressional majorities on November 3, 27 days from now.
What Comes Next
Military planners routinely prepare options for presidents, and developing a strike package is distinct from ordering an attack. For now the Pentagon is planning rather than striking, and Trump has not selected an option. The question facing the administration is whether a limited pre-election operation would help or hurt the political position it is meant to improve.
The next several weeks will show whether the planning produces action before voters decide who controls Congress, or whether the larger campaign officials describe is held until after November 3.