President Donald Trump on Monday claimed Iran is seeking an agreement to end the months-long conflict with the United States, pointing to a sharp decline in oil prices as evidence that markets are anticipating a diplomatic breakthrough. In a Truth Social post published November 2, Trump said oil had fallen nearly $10 a barrel and suggested an agreement with Tehran could be reached soon, even as reports of potential renewed military action after Tuesday’s midterm elections continue to raise questions about the future of the conflict.
Trump’s post read in full:
Oil Prices are DROPPING LIKE A ROCK, down almost $10 a Barrel, A RECORD, because people feel that there will not be a War with Iran. Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen! President DONALD J. TRUMP
November 2, 2026, at 2:46 p.m. ET
The president’s remarks came as international benchmark Brent crude experienced a significant decline during Monday’s trading session. Brent fell more than 8% to approximately $104 a barrel, its lowest level in four weeks, as optimism surrounding renewed negotiations reduced concerns about additional disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies. Earlier in the session, Brent had been trading closer to $112, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude fell to approximately $96 after approaching $103.
The decline followed indications that Iran’s leadership had authorized renewed diplomatic efforts. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had granted the government authority to pursue negotiations with Washington. The development followed two days of Qatar-mediated discussions involving representatives from both countries, with Iranian officials indicating that an agreement remained possible if commitments were implemented in practice.
Trump also addressed the possibility of an agreement during remarks at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington on Monday, using his closing midterm-election message to highlight the decline in energy prices.
“Oil today is down $10,” Trump said.
“It’s going to go down a lot further because we’re winning with Iran, easily winning,” he added, claiming that the decline represented “the biggest drop in oil in history.”
Trump’s Position on the Iran Conflict
Monday’s comments reflect Trump’s renewed emphasis on negotiations, although his public position throughout the conflict has included repeated declarations of military success, demands for Iranian concessions and threats of additional military action.
The conflict began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran under the operation name Operation Epic Fury. In his initial announcement, Trump called for the Iranian people to take control of their government, describing the military campaign as an opportunity to change the country’s political future. He initially estimated that the operation could last approximately four to five weeks, although he subsequently acknowledged that military action could continue longer.
Throughout March, Trump repeatedly claimed that Iran’s military capabilities had been severely weakened while alternating between expressing confidence in negotiations and threatening further attacks. On March 23, he announced that he had instructed the Pentagon to postpone planned strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days while diplomatic discussions continued. He described the conversations as productive and said the countries could ultimately reach a settlement, while warning that bombing would continue if negotiations failed.
Trump’s willingness to pursue negotiations was accompanied by increasingly severe warnings directed at Tehran. In March and early April, he threatened Iranian power plants, oil infrastructure and the strategically important Kharg Island if Iran failed to meet U.S. demands and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On April 4, he warned that Iran had 48 hours to reach an agreement or face further military action. The following day, he threatened attacks against Iranian power plants and bridges.
On April 7, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, saying he had agreed to suspend U.S. bombing and attacks after discussions with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military leader Asim Munir. Trump said the United States had already met and exceeded its military objectives and was close to reaching a long-term peace agreement with Iran. He also described an Iranian 10-point proposal as a workable basis for negotiations.
The ceasefire subsequently became the basis for additional diplomatic efforts. In June, Washington and Tehran reached a 14-point memorandum of understanding that formalized the ceasefire, ended the U.S. naval blockade and reopened the Strait of Hormuz while establishing a 60-day negotiating period for a broader agreement. However, the framework ultimately collapsed, with the agreement expiring in August without a permanent settlement.
By July, Trump had again declared the ceasefire over and reinstated the blockade against Iran. His subsequent statements included additional threats against Iranian infrastructure and announcements of renewed economic pressure. On August 19, he described the administration’s sanctions campaign as the “MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY.”
The administration also continued to leave the possibility of additional military action open. In a September 3 letter to congressional leaders, Trump disclosed that U.S. forces had conducted defensive strikes against Iranian targets on September 1 following attacks against American forces in late August. He said the strikes targeted Iranian military capabilities, including air defenses, naval assets and command-and-control infrastructure, and warned that American forces remained prepared to take further action if necessary.
Renewed Diplomacy and Possible Post-Election Escalation
Despite Monday’s optimistic comments, the possibility of renewed military action remains unresolved. Reports surrounding Trump’s recent discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicate that Netanyahu has been pressing for a new U.S. air campaign against Iran following the November 3 midterm elections. Trump has not publicly committed to such an operation and has indicated a preference for allowing diplomatic efforts more time, while retaining the option of military action.
The potential timing of another escalation is particularly significant because the conflict has become a major factor in international energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial share of global oil supplies normally passes, has experienced repeated disruptions during the conflict. Damage to regional energy infrastructure, restrictions on shipping and increased transportation costs have contributed to higher oil prices. Any renewed fighting could therefore reverse some of Monday’s market gains.
Trump’s latest comments also came one day before Americans head to the polls in the November 3 midterm elections, with economic conditions and energy costs among the central issues facing voters. The average U.S. gasoline price stood at approximately $4.17 per gallon on Monday, around $1.13 higher than at the same time last year, adding to pressure on households already dealing with elevated transportation and living expenses.
Political prediction markets were also heavily favoring Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives. On November 2, Polymarket placed the probability of Democratic control at approximately 95%, reflecting traders’ expectations rather than a confirmed election result. The forecast underscores the difficult political environment facing Republicans as the administration attempts to highlight falling oil prices and progress toward ending the conflict.
For now, Trump is presenting the latest decline in oil prices as evidence that a diplomatic resolution with Iran may be approaching. However, with no permanent agreement announced, the previous ceasefire framework having collapsed and military options still under consideration, whether the latest negotiations produce a lasting end to the conflict remains uncertain.