The warnings arrived from nearly every corner of President Donald Trump’s national security apparatus, and they were specific: killing Iran’s supreme leader could install a more radical regime willing to pursue nuclear weapons, Tehran would move to seal the Strait of Hormuz and shock global energy markets, and American forces across the Middle East would become targets. Six months after Trump launched the war anyway, those warnings have largely materialized, and the president is now pinning his hopes for an end to the conflict on a sweeping new economic campaign rather than further military force.
Then-Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard laid out the assessments from U.S. intelligence agencies before the war began, telling Trump that eliminating Iran’s supreme leader would likely usher in a harder-line successor open to acquiring nuclear weapons, according to people familiar with the meeting cited by The Wall Street Journal. Tehran, she warned, would rush to close the Strait of Hormuz, destabilizing global energy markets, and would strike U.S. forces and partners across the region, raising questions about American resolve.
Vice President JD Vance separately urged a more cautious approach, telling Trump that Iran might be persuaded to dissolve its nuclear program through negotiations rather than force, particularly given that its economy was already buckling under existing U.S. sanctions. Vance argued that if diplomacy failed, Trump would have more legitimacy to strike later in a swift, overwhelming operation. Top military leaders added their own cautions, warning of casualties, strain on America’s weapons stockpile and readiness problems for an already overstretched force.
The Case for War
Trump entered 2026 looking for another opportunity to project American power, having already ordered a June 2025 strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities and a January raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested Iran as the next target, telling Trump the country was at its weakest point in decades and that the moment offered a rare chance to dismantle its nuclear program while cementing his legacy as a peacemaker.
Despite the warnings, Trump was ultimately swayed by Pentagon presentations describing “decisive” options for a strike, according to U.S. officials. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, briefed the president repeatedly on plans targeting Iranian missile launchers, radar systems, weapons-production facilities, mine-storage sites and warships, with Israel expected to simultaneously target Iran’s top leadership. When Trump raised the concerns being voiced elsewhere in his administration, Hegseth and Caine told him on multiple occasions that they would manage any complications that arose.
Applause, Then Doubts
The war began Feb. 28, and Trump urged Iranians to overthrow their own government. Early on, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Iran envoy Steve Witkoff interrupted a fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago to inform Trump that Israel had killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Trump was pleased enough that he had the news announced to the crowd, which broke into applause as the president crossed his arms and puffed out his chest, according to people familiar with the event.
The satisfaction did not last. Battlefield losses and damage to U.S. equipment and bases raised questions about what the United States was actually gaining, while Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz halted roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas trade, sending fuel prices climbing. Leaders from Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and Qatar contacted the White House seeking a face-saving diplomatic exit, while Republican lawmakers warned Trump the war was damaging the party’s standing ahead of the November midterms.
A Cycle of Deals and Collapse
By mid-April, with Trump still undecided on the best path forward, a friend who visited him relayed that the president asked whether he should “bomb the s—” out of Iran. The friend advised against it, warning it would only draw the U.S. deeper into a widening regional conflict, according to a person familiar with the conversation. Diplomatic efforts eventually produced a ceasefire, though Iran used the pause to drop dozens of mines in a confined section of the Strait of Hormuz.
A breakthrough came June 17 with an interim agreement to reopen the strait and launch 60 days of nuclear negotiations. Confidants who asked Trump why he accepted a temporary deal were told he was responding to internal White House polling showing nearly 80% of Americans wanted the conflict ended regardless of the terms. Iran quickly resumed strikes on shipping in the strait after the interim deal, which Trump characterized as a betrayal, and the pattern repeated itself throughout the summer: announced deals collapsing, threats of renewed force, and periodic pullbacks as Trump cited progress toward an agreement.
In late July, Trump ordered what he described as an assault larger than any U.S. military action since World War II, then pulled back after regional leaders urged him to avoid further escalation. The 60-day negotiating window closed Aug. 17 without a deal.
The Toll
An estimated 3,000 Iranians and 18 U.S. servicemembers have died in combat operations related to the war, with the Pentagon reporting an additional 756 American troops wounded. The conflict has damaged U.S. bases, drained oil reserves and depleted munitions stockpiles, while dragging down Republican prospects in the midterms and pushing Trump’s approval ratings to the lowest point of his presidency.
Eric Brewer, a deputy vice president at the Nuclear Threat Initiative who has worked in both Democratic and Republican administrations, said the outcome was foreseeable from the outset. “This was all predictable and predicted,” Brewer said. “You can draw a straight line from the fact that the war was launched without any clear political objective to the mishandled diplomacy in trying to end it.”
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales defended the administration’s approach, saying Trump has “decimated Iran’s military and nuclear facilities” and is now preparing to crush the country’s economy through a naval blockade and sanctions. “He will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” Wales said. “It would be wise for Iran to reach a deal. Otherwise, they know what could happen.”
Operation Economic Outcast
Three days after the nuclear negotiating window closed, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Trump had shifted to an economic-pressure campaign aimed at collapsing the Iranian regime, dubbed Operation Economic Outcast. Bessent unveiled the campaign Monday at the Treasury Department, calling it “an economic D-Day” and declaring, “at President Trump’s direction, the United States Treasury has begun Operation Economic Outcast, an unprecedented campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran and its enablers.”
The Treasury Department issued new sectoral sanctions determinations targeting five sectors Bessent described as Iran’s most vital foreign lifelines: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. The department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control also sanctioned more than 60 entities, individuals and vessels that Bessent said help Iran procure nuclear and missile technology, conduct cyber operations or generate oil revenue.
“Our objective is to sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone,” Bessent said, describing the operation as “a sustained campaign to collapse every last option for Iran” and warning that any nation continuing economic cooperation with Tehran would expose itself to “the full reach of American power.” He framed the choice facing Iran as one between “complete global isolation and a subsistence economy, or a path back to normalcy.”
Bessent said the U.S. has “mapped every node, every facilitator and every network that Iran has used to smuggle oil and evade sanctions,” and that any entity found laundering money on Iran’s behalf “will be removed from the U.S. dollar system.” Iran’s currency has fallen to a record low against the dollar, prompting Trump to write on social media Monday that the country is “completely collapsing.” Top Iranian officials dismissed the new sanctions as ineffective, and Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei threatened to halt oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz entirely if neighboring countries joined the American pressure campaign.
U.S. officials told Axios the sanctions campaign is expected to remain the administration’s primary approach against Iran at least through the midterm elections, with the possibility of renewed military action left open beyond that point. Nearly six months after promising a war that would last six weeks, Trump’s regime-change rhetoric has returned — this time through sanctions rather than airstrikes, with no nuclear deal, an open Strait of Hormuz, or resolution yet in sight.