Rep. Ted Lieu warned that the United States is burning through critical air defense missile stockpiles at an unsustainable rate in the war against Iran, arguing the pace shows the country cannot fight prolonged wars against major powers under its current defense production capacity.
“We need a massive change in defense strategy,” Lieu wrote on X. “In less than 5 months, against a second rate military, US has used about half of all Patriot and THAAD missiles. US only makes 50 Patriot and 8 THAAD missiles a month. Russia and China will outlast US in future wars unless we change.”
Lieu was responding to a post from the account SentDefender summarizing New York Times reporting that Trump had set aside plans to sharply escalate the war against Iran after senior military leaders warned that expanded strikes could dangerously deplete the country’s stockpile of Patriot and other air defense missiles.
According to the Times, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, privately cautioned that resuming major combat operations was possible but would dangerously deplete interceptors available to U.S. Central Command. The Times reported that the Pentagon had used more than 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles in the war as of late April, at more than $4 million apiece, and that the situation had worsened since then according to military officials.
Lieu’s production figures align closely with figures reported elsewhere on the defense industrial base. Lockheed Martin’s contracted Patriot PAC-3 MSE production rate has stood at roughly 600 missiles annually, or about 50 per month, while the company’s THAAD interceptor production has run at 96 missiles annually, or 8 per month, according to a report on the production contracts. The Pentagon has since moved to expand both lines substantially, with plans to more than triple Patriot output to 2,000 missiles annually by 2030 and to quadruple THAAD production to 400 per year, though those expansions will take years to materialize.
A separate analysis from the Foreign Policy Research Institute found that during the first four days of the war, coalition forces expended Patriot interceptors at an estimated rate of 225 per day, while Lockheed’s Camden, Arkansas production facility produced roughly 1.7 per day, a consumption-to-production ratio the analysis described as a “massive warfighting endurance gap.”
The Times reported that three U.S. soldiers in Jordan were killed the prior Friday when a ballistic missile slipped through American air defenses during a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones, an incident that factored into the administration’s deliberations over the risks of further escalation.
White House communications director Steven Cheung said the administration remained focused on a negotiated outcome despite the paused escalation plans. “The president has always been consistent in saying he prefers a diplomatic solution, but he continues to retain all options if Iran continues terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz or against allies,” Cheung told the Times, adding that “it would be wise for Iran to work towards a negotiated deal” given the sanctions and strikes it has already endured.
Trump had signaled openness to a larger campaign just a day before setting the plans aside, telling Axios, “I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it.” He also told reporters Friday that the U.S. remained “locked and loaded” while talks with Iran continued.
Lieu, who sits on the House Foreign Affairs and Judiciary committees, has separately warned against ground operations targeting Iranian territory, telling Foreign Policy in a recent interview that seizing Iranian islands like Kharg or Larak “would expose U.S. troops to being shot at every single day by Iran.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that China has reduced its crude oil purchases from Iran by roughly 40 percent in recent months, a decline he said is significantly cutting into Iran’s oil revenues as the administration continues pursuing economic pressure alongside its military options.
Neither the White House nor the Pentagon has issued a direct public response to Lieu’s statement.