U.S. Rep. Mike Levin, a California Democrat, accused President Donald Trump on Saturday of driving up what American families pay for energy. He cited a new nonpartisan analysis projecting that the average household will pay about $6,500 more through 2040 as a result of the administration’s policies. The congressman made the charge in a post on X, adding that the ongoing war with Iran has pushed gasoline prices sharply higher.
The post, published at 7:04 PM on October 3, 2026, comes as energy affordability has become a central issue in the national political debate over the cost of living, military strategy and the direction of U.S. energy policy. The war with Iran has also placed energy markets, and the security of global supply routes, squarely within the defense and foreign policy conversation in Washington.
What Levin Said
Levin’s post, published in full and unedited, read:
“A new nonpartisan analysis shows what President Trump’s energy policies are projected to cost American families. The average household will pay about $6,500 more for energy through 2040.
Households in Oregon, Mississippi, South Dakota, Virginia, and Wyoming are projected to pay roughly $9,000 more. Families in states that voted for Trump will pay more on average than families anywhere else.
Lower energy costs should be something every American can agree on. Instead, this administration and its allies in Congress canceled new clean energy projects and slashed the tax credits that made wind and solar cheaper.
On top of that, the war with Iran has pushed gas prices sharply higher.
Rep. Sean Casten and I wrote the Energy Bills Relief Act to protect families and small businesses from these spikes, and more than 160 of our colleagues have signed on as cosponsors.
We will keep working to lower your energy bills until we get it done.”
The Analysis Behind the Claim
The figures Levin cited come from modeling released Friday by Energy Innovation, a California-based think tank. The analysis found that households in the contiguous United States will pay an average of $6,500 more for energy, cumulatively through 2040, because of federal policy changes since Trump returned to office. In five states (Oregon, Mississippi, South Dakota, Virginia and Wyoming), the projected increase is roughly $9,000 per household.
The think tank attributed the increases to several developments. Canceling new wind, solar and hydrogen projects raises demand for natural gas to generate electricity. Revoking policies that encouraged efficient, lower-emissions vehicles raises demand for gasoline. Higher demand pushes prices up.
The modeling focused on the sweeping tax package Trump signed, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill, which cut funding for clean energy tax credits. It also covered environmental rollbacks, including changes to clean air and power plant rules and the revocation of a scientific finding that underpinned the U.S. effort to fight climate change. Looser fuel economy standards, the blocking of California’s rule banning new gas-powered car sales by 2035, and federal actions against wind, solar and hydrogen projects were included as well.
A Wider Set of Costs
Energy Innovation projected that annual household energy costs will rise in every state in the contiguous U.S. It also projected job losses in 47 of 48 states and losses to gross domestic product in 46. The environmental rollbacks, it said, would bring 37,000 additional premature deaths from air pollution, $72 billion in additional healthcare costs and more than 9 billion tons of additional carbon pollution.
Alaska and Hawaii were excluded because key federal data is unavailable for them, said Robbie Orvis, the group’s senior director for modeling and analysis. “Across pretty much every state, things are worse. The outlook now is worse for states and the affordability crisis will be worse because of the combined set of policies,” Orvis said.
Oregon Faces the Steepest Increase
The modeling projects that federal policy changes will raise annual energy spending in Oregon by $840 per household in 2035 and $1,200 per household in 2040. The cumulative increase from 2026 to 2040 is $9,300, the highest of any state.
Bob Jenks, executive director of the Oregon Citizens’ Utility Board, which advocates for residential utility customers, called those numbers “frightening.” He said Oregon already has an energy affordability problem, driven by steep rate increases as utilities make upgrades and data centers draw more power. Jenks expects utilities to disconnect more customers who cannot afford their bills as costs rise. “We’re trying to optimize among the resource options we have, and they’re trying to take things away and raise the costs,” he said.
The White House Response
The White House rejected the premise of the analysis. Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said Wednesday that lowering electricity prices remains a top priority and that Trump is unleashing reliable energy such as coal and natural gas to reverse damage she attributed to Democrats’ expansion of clean energy on the grid. She pointed to a 2025 Department of Energy report, mandated by Trump, that warned of increasing blackouts if the U.S. kept closing coal and natural gas plants.
“Joe Biden created a grid crisis; President Trump is fixing it,” Rogers wrote in an email. “If the Democrats had their way, these costly and unreliable renewable energy projects would still be failing our grid and our communities.”
Rogers also called it “irresponsible” to describe Energy Innovation as nonpartisan, saying its employees have donated to and worked with Democrats on climate policy. Spokesman Silvio Marcacci responded that the organization works with policymakers of any party who want to cut emissions and lower bills. He said several Republican-led states have used its policy modeling tool and that much of its data comes from government sources, including the Energy Information Administration.
The Data on Prices
Energy Innovation’s own findings complicate the partisan framing on both sides. Three of the five states facing the highest projected costs have Republican governors. States with high levels of wind and solar generation, including Republican-led Iowa and Oklahoma, have seen among the lowest rate increases.
Federal data shows the average price residential customers pay for electricity rose during Joe Biden’s term and has continued to rise under Trump. The Energy Information Administration expects residential customers to pay about 18.6 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2027, compared with 17.3 cents in 2025 and 18.2 cents in 2026.
The Legislation Levin Is Pushing
The bill Levin referenced, the Energy Bills Relief Act (H.R. 7977), was introduced by Rep. Sean Casten, an Illinois Democrat, on March 18, 2026, with Levin as a lead cosponsor. It was referred to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce and to several other committees. The bill remains in committee.
Levin’s Earlier Statements
Levin announced the legislation at an event on March 23, 2026, and framed it as a response to the Iran conflict’s effect on energy markets. His office said the bill addresses energy costs in three ways: deploying low-cost clean energy, putting affordability over profits, and modernizing the electric grid. “That’s why I’m proud to introduce the Energy Bills Relief Act — a consumer-first plan to lower electricity bills and take on the structural drivers of high energy costs, once and for all,” Levin said.
What the Bill Would Do
Under the legislation, as described by its sponsors, utilities would be rewarded for making their systems more efficient. Clean energy tax credits repealed by the 2025 tax law would be restored to support wind and solar development. Direct assistance would help struggling households avoid utility shutoffs, and large energy users such as data centers would bear more of the costs they create. The bill would also expand efficiency programs such as home weatherization.
Outlook in a Divided Congress
Levin’s post says more than 160 House colleagues have signed on as cosponsors, up from the roughly 122 listed when the bill was introduced in March. Cosponsorship has been overwhelmingly Democratic. Whether any of it advances will depend on the House Republican majority, which controls the committees where the bill sits.
The politics are also shaped by the election calendar. The prediction market Polymarket currently puts the odds of Democrats winning the House at 94%. Prediction markets are not polls, and their odds move with news and trading activity.
For Levin and other Democrats, rising energy bills and fuel prices have become a central argument against the administration. The White House and Republican allies counter that their emphasis on coal and natural gas will strengthen the grid and bring prices down over time. Levin closed his post with a pledge: “We will keep working to lower your energy bills until we get it done.”