WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump, responding to the arrest of an American soldier for allegedly betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, said the world “has become somewhat of a casino.”
The Justice Department announced Thursday the unsealing of an indictment charging Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Army soldier, with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction. The charges arise from an alleged scheme in which Van Dyke used sensitive classified information to make wagers on Polymarket, a prediction marketplace.
Van Dyke, a 38-year-old Army Special Forces master sergeant, “was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve,” which apprehended Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in early January, according to the Department of Justice.
The Bets
According to the indictment, on or about Dec. 26, 2025, Van Dyke created a Polymarket account, funded it, and began trading on Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets. In total, Van Dyke made approximately 13 bets from Dec. 27, 2025, through Jan. 2, 2026.
All of those wagers took a “Yes” position on contracts that said U.S. forces would be in Venezuela by Jan. 31, 2026; that Maduro would be out of office by that date; that the U.S would invade that country by Jan. 31; or that President Trump would invoke the War Powers Act against the country by that date, CNBC reported.
Van Dyke bet a total of approximately $33,034 on those outcomes while in possession of classified nonpublic information about Operation Absolute Resolve. In the predawn hours of Jan. 3, the U.S. apprehended Maduro and his wife at a residence in Caracas, Venezuela, and hours later the President announced the successful operation.
The largest position — a $32,537 bet that Maduro would be out of office by Jan. 31 — resulted in a 1,242% profit of $404,222, according to ABC News.
Trump’s Response
Speaking to reporters during an Oval Office event on health care affordability on Thursday, Trump said he was unaware of the arrest but would look into it.
“That’s like Pete Rose betting on his own team,” the president said. “If he bet against his team, that would be no good, but he bet on his own team.”
When a reporter noted there have also been suspicions of insider trading on prediction markets related to the Iran conflict, Trump responded: “Well, you know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino. And you look at what’s going on all over the world, in Europe and every place, they’re doing these betting things. I was never much in favor of it. I don’t like it conceptually, but, uh, it is what it is.”
Trump added he was “not happy with any of that stuff.”
Alleged Cover-Up
Shortly after the announcement of Operation Absolute Resolve, reports of unusual trading in Maduro-related contracts on Polymarket appeared in the press and on social media. Van Dyke then took steps to conceal his identity as the trader. On or about January 6, 2026, Van Dyke asked Polymarket to delete his Polymarket account, falsely claiming that he had lost access to the email address to which the account had been associated.
Following his successful trading, Van Dyke allegedly sent most of his proceeds to a foreign cryptocurrency vault before depositing them into a newly created online brokerage account. The same day of the operation, Van Dyke withdrew the majority of his allegedly unlawful proceeds from his Polymarket account.
Government Response
“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. “Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply.”
“Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York. “The defendant allegedly violated the trust placed in him by the United States Government by using classified information about a sensitive military operation to place bets on the timing and outcome of that very operation, all to turn a profit. That is clear insider trading and is illegal under federal law.”
Historic First Prosecution
This case marks the first time the CFTC has charged insider trading involving event contracts, and the first time the CFTC has used the so-called ‘Eddie Murphy Rule’ to bring charges based on the misuse of government information, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.
The “Eddie Murphy Rule” — Section 746 of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, nicknamed after the 1983 film “Trading Places” — makes it illegal to trade commodities based on stolen or misappropriated nonpublic government information, Axios reported.
A Polymarket spokesperson said the company referred the suspicious bets to the Department of Justice and cooperated with the investigation. “Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today’s arrest is proof the system works,” the statement said.
Charges and Potential Penalties
Van Dyke, 38, of Fayetteville, North Carolina, is charged with three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, each of which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison; one count of wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison; and one count of an unlawful monetary transaction, which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison.
Van Dyke will be released on a $250,000 appearance bond. He agreed to surrender his passport, limit travel to parts of New York and North Carolina, limit drinking “in excess,” and no longer possess a firearm unless it’s part of his active military service, according to ABC News.
Trump Family Ties to Prediction Markets
Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is “both an investor in and an unpaid adviser to Polymarket, and a paid adviser to Kalshi, the two biggest prediction markets,” according to CNBC, citing The New York Times.
Trump Jr. has said via a spokesperson that he does not trade on prediction markets and does not interact with the federal government on their behalf.
One of Trump’s namesake companies, Trump Media and Technology Group, announced last year that it would launch a prediction betting marketplace called Truth Predict.