U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran’s missile infrastructure remains more resilient than publicly described by administration officials, with new findings highlighting the use of decoys and rapid repair efforts that complicate efforts to measure battlefield progress. The developments underscore continuing uncertainty over how much of Iran’s missile capability has actually been degraded, a central objective in the ongoing conflict.
According to intelligence reports, Iranian operatives have been actively excavating and restoring underground missile bunkers and silos that were struck by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. In some cases, these facilities have reportedly been returned to operational status within hours of being hit. The ability to quickly recover damaged infrastructure has allowed Iran to maintain a level of missile readiness despite sustained bombardment.
The Pentagon and the White House have pointed to broad operational success, noting that thousands of targets have been struck during the opening weeks of the war. Officials have emphasized a sharp reduction in the frequency of Iranian missile and drone launches as evidence that the campaign is achieving its intended effects.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has pointed to the reduced tempo of attacks as a sign of weakening Iranian capability, stating, “Yes, they will still shoot some missiles, but we will shoot them down.” He also noted that “the last 24 hours saw the lowest number of enemy missiles and drones fired by Iran,” adding that Iranian forces may attempt to conceal assets underground but “we will find them.”
Hegseth on Iran:
— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 31, 2026
Yes, they will still shoot some missiles — but we will shoot them down. pic.twitter.com/cFLvu2bjgB
Despite these claims, intelligence officials have raised questions about how close the United States and its allies are to eliminating Iran’s missile threat. Analysts say Iran continues to retain a significant number of ballistic missiles and mobile launchers, preserving its ability to strike Israel and other regional targets. The remaining arsenal, while reduced, still provides Tehran with ongoing offensive capability.
A key challenge in assessing the damage lies in Iran’s reported use of decoys. Intelligence officials believe that some of the launchers targeted in airstrikes may have been non-operational or deliberately placed as false targets. This has made it difficult to determine how many functioning systems have actually been destroyed. Prewar estimates of Iran’s launcher inventory were already imprecise, further complicating efforts to measure attrition.
In addition, many launchers are believed to be concealed in hardened underground facilities, including bunkers and cave systems that are difficult to fully destroy from the air. Even when such sites appear to be heavily damaged, follow-up intelligence suggests that Iranian crews have been able to clear debris and restore launch capability relatively quickly.
Iran’s strategy appears focused on preserving its remaining missile forces while continuing limited strikes. Current and former U.S. officials say Iran has been launching missiles at a slower, more controlled pace, often firing one or two at a time. Estimates indicate roughly 20 missiles per day, though some Western officials have placed the range higher, alongside continued drone operations.
Internal challenges within Iran’s command structure have also affected operations. Former officials cited fractures within the government that have complicated coordination, limiting the country’s ability to carry out large-scale, simultaneous missile barrages.
Even so, Iran’s approach reflects a calculated effort to sustain pressure over time. By conserving launchers and relying on protected underground infrastructure, Tehran appears positioned to continue missile operations if the conflict persists, while also maintaining a residual deterrent capability beyond the war’s immediate timeline.
Iranian forces have used heavy equipment, including bulldozers, to uncover and reactivate buried launch systems in underground facilities. These recovery efforts further illustrate the difficulty facing U.S. and Israeli forces in attempting to fully neutralize Iran’s missile network.