President Donald Trump said Monday that oil prices will fall sharply once the United States “WINS” the war with Iran, predicting gas will drop to $3 a gallon and eventually below $2 — a promise made as American drivers just paid the highest Labor Day weekend gas prices on record.
“Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran. Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon. MAGA! President DJT,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post published Monday, September 7, at 6:16 p.m.
The post ties any relief at the pump to a future military outcome, despite the fact that Trump and members of his administration have declared the war won on multiple occasions dating back to the conflict’s early weeks. The war began February 28 as part of what the administration has branded Operation Epic Fury.
A Victory Declared Many Times Before
Trump first claimed the war had already been won less than two weeks after it started. Speaking to a crowd in Hebron, Kentucky, on March 11, Trump said, “We won. We won. In the first hour it was over, but we won,” telling supporters that U.S. forces had destroyed 58 Iranian naval vessels and eliminated Iran’s air force capabilities. He added, “Let me say we’ve won. You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won.”
Two weeks later, on March 24, Trump repeated the claim from the Oval Office, saying Iran was “totally defeated” as he discussed the prospects of a peace deal. Around the same time, reports emerged that the administration had authorized the deployment of more than 1,000 additional members of the 82nd Airborne Division to the Gulf region, on top of the roughly 50,000 American troops already stationed in the region.
In April, after a ceasefire was announced, Trump again declared “total and complete victory,” telling Agence France-Presse it was “100%. No question about it.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed the assessment at an April 8 Pentagon briefing, calling Operation Epic Fury “a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield, a capital-V military victory.” Fact-checkers noted at the time that while the U.S. and Israel had achieved significant battlefield gains against Iran’s naval, air force and air-defense systems, experts cautioned that calling it a “total victory” overlooked ongoing strategic uncertainties, including unresolved questions about Iran’s nuclear materials.
By June 15, on his 80th birthday, Trump declared the conflict resolved a third time, writing on social media that “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete” and that the Strait of Hormuz — closed to shipping since the war’s outbreak — would reopen, bringing “peace and security” to the region.
Strait Of Hormuz Disruptions Persist Into September
Despite the repeated declarations of victory and the announced reopening of the Strait, oil market volatility tied to the waterway has continued into September. Reporting this week described “continued volatility in the Strait of Hormuz” as a driver of crude prices in the $90-per-barrel range, more than three months after Trump’s June announcement that the strait would reopen.
Record Prices Greet Labor Day Weekend
The president’s latest promise of cheaper gas came as the national average for regular unleaded reached $4.15 a gallon on Monday, according to AAA — the first Labor Day in history with pump prices above $4, and well above the previous Labor Day record of $3.82 set in September 2012. Regular gas is up roughly 30% from the $3.20 a gallon drivers were paying at this time last year.
Diesel prices set their own record heading into the holiday weekend, reaching $5.90 a gallon on Monday, compared with $3.71 a year earlier, AAA reported. A spokesperson for AAA, Brittany Moye, said that while gasoline demand typically declines after the summer driving season, “this year’s elevated crude oil costs have offset that seasonal trend.”
State-level prices varied widely. California drivers paid the most in the nation at $5.86 a gallon, up from $4.62 a year earlier, while Alaska, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington all posted averages above $5 a gallon. Indiana had the lowest statewide average, at $3.43.
Crude Benchmarks Remain Well Above Pre-War Levels
West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, was trading at roughly $92 a barrel Monday morning, compared with about $67 before the Iran war began February 28. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at about $97 a barrel, up from roughly $72 before the war. Analysts pointed to tanker traffic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and refinery damage from both the Iran war and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war as key factors squeezing supply. The Energy Information Administration estimated that daily crude and petroleum liquids throughput in the strait fell to about 4.9 million barrels in the second quarter of the year, down sharply from the 21.6 million barrels per day that transited the waterway in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Administration Signals No Immediate Relief
Energy Secretary Chris Wright, appearing on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, acknowledged that prices remain higher than they were on Labor Day 2025 but did not offer a timeline for relief. “Yes, they’re higher today, but we’re doing everything we can to push them down,” Wright said.
The current national average remains below the 2026 peak of $4.56 a gallon reached in May and below the all-time record of $5.02 a gallon set in June 2022. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan noted ahead of the holiday that the national average was likely to become “the highest level ever recorded this late in the calendar year.”
Political Backdrop
The record prices arrive as campaigns for the November midterm elections intensify, with energy costs emerging as a recurring line of attack against the administration from Democratic lawmakers. Trump has in recent weeks stepped up criticism of refiners and fuel retailers, accusing them of profiting from elevated pump prices even as his administration touts increased U.S. refined product exports, which the EIA reported are up more than 10% compared with a year earlier.
Monday’s Truth Social post marks the latest instance of Trump linking a resolution of the war to economic relief for American consumers, a formula he has repeated at multiple points since the conflict began, even as the war’s declared endings have not consistently translated into the reopening of oil markets or lower prices at the pump.