Lieu Responds to Alarming Oil Data With Terse Warning
Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) issued a stark reaction on X Monday morning after data showed the United States has been left with just 41 days of crude oil inventory on hand, the thinnest supply cushion the country has held in roughly 50 years. Posting at 11:02 a.m. on August 24, 2026, Lieu wrote simply: “This seems bad.” The remark, brief as it was, landed amid mounting concern in Washington and on Wall Street over how deeply the ongoing war with Iran has drained America’s energy reserves.
This seems bad. https://t.co/CKvfmTa6e8
— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) August 24, 2026
The Data That Prompted the Warning
Lieu’s post came in direct response to financial data provider Barchart, which had posted moments earlier: “U.S. has just 41 days of crude oil inventory left, the lowest level in half a century 🤯 👀.” The figure, drawn from combined commercial crude stockpiles and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, represents the smallest emergency buffer the country has carried since the early 1980s.
What the 41-Day Figure Actually Measures
The “days of supply” metric does not mean the United States will physically run dry of oil in 41 days. Rather, it measures how long existing total reserves — commercial inventories plus the SPR — would theoretically last if all domestic production and imports were to halt simultaneously. Barchart had flagged the same metric in July, when it stood at 43 days, itself already a 45-year low. The additional two-day decline reflects the continued pace of an emergency release the U.S. committed to as part of a larger international drawdown effort tied to the war.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve at Its Lowest Since 1983
Part of what is driving the low figure is the state of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve itself. Department of Energy data released earlier this month showed the SPR fell by 6.1 million barrels in a single week to 298.7 million barrels, crossing below the 300 million-barrel mark for the first time in more than four decades and reaching its lowest level since January 1983. The reserve stood at roughly 415 million barrels before the U.S. and Israel launched their attack on Iran on February 28, 2026.
Trump’s 172-Million-Barrel Release Order
The drawdown traces directly back to a decision by President Donald Trump, who in March 2026 authorized the release of up to 172 million barrels from the SPR after Iran moved to restrict oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. That release is part of a broader International Energy Agency-coordinated effort, with member nations collectively committing 400 million barrels — the largest emergency stock mobilization the IEA has ever undertaken.
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Still Far Below Pre-War Levels
The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply moved before the conflict, remains a central factor in the supply strain. Crude and petroleum liquids moving through the strait averaged just 4.9 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026, down sharply from 21.6 million barrels a day in the quarter before the war began in February, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The agency has said it does not expect meaningful relief before September, when officials project traffic will begin to recover.
Oil Prices Have Swung Wildly All Summer
The supply strain has translated into significant volatility at the pump and in futures markets. West Texas Intermediate crude spiked to $88 a barrel earlier this month after Iran’s closure of the strait cut vessel traffic from roughly 130 ships a day to just eight, while U.S. gas prices climbed above $4.09 per gallon. Iran has said it will not reopen the strait until it receives sanctions relief and war reparations.
Not Lieu’s First Time Tying Oil Prices to the War
Monday’s post was not the first time Lieu has publicly connected rising oil prices to the administration’s Iran policy. Days earlier, responding to commentary about the price spike, Lieu wrote on X: “Hint: Oil prices are very high because trump engaged in an unconstitutional action that starts with W and ends in R.” The comment referenced the broader debate in Congress over the legality of the military campaign against Iran, which has included prior House and Senate votes on War Powers Resolutions.
Treasury Secretary’s Own Confusion Over the Spike
Lieu’s remarks came shortly after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters he did not fully understand the recent spike in oil prices, dismissing the WTI surge to $88 as “noise” he could not explain. The comment drew criticism from commentators who noted the tension between Bessent’s stated confusion and his own role in the administration’s sanctions and economic pressure campaign against Iran, a campaign that has directly contributed to the tightening of global oil markets.
Analysts Warn Reserve Cushion Has All but Disappeared
The scale of the drawdown has prompted blunt assessments from energy analysts. Following the SPR’s drop below 300 million barrels earlier this month, one analyst wrote in a note circulated by CNBC’s Carl Quintanilla that the country “basically has NO Strategic Petroleum Reserve anymore.” While the reserve remains above the statutory minimum of 252.4 million barrels required under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, the Department of Energy has said only about 70 million barrels represents the true safe-operating floor.
Aging Infrastructure Compounds the Concern
A May 2026 Government Accountability Office report found that more than a quarter of the SPR’s inventory was unavailable for drawdown due to construction and cavern outages, implying that a minimum of roughly 103 million barrels currently sitting in the reserve cannot actually be accessed in an emergency. Sandia National Laboratories, which serves as the SPR’s geotechnical adviser, previously found that well deformations at storage sites were outpacing the Department of Energy’s ability to address the risk of potential well failures.
What Comes Next
The Energy Information Administration’s expectation that Hormuz traffic will not meaningfully recover until September leaves the reserve cushion under continued pressure in the near term. With hurricane season also underway along the Gulf Coast, where much of the SPR’s underground salt-cavern storage is located, analysts have warned that any additional supply shock could send prices sharply higher before the reserve has a chance to rebuild.