A top Iranian national security official laid out a sweeping list of conditions on Saturday that he said Washington must satisfy before the Strait of Hormuz can reopen to global shipping, throwing a wrench into weeks of quiet diplomacy that had appeared to be nudging the crisis toward resolution. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said in a statement carried by Iranian state media that the United States must lift its naval blockade and sanctions, withdraw its military forces from around Iran, pay war reparations, release Iran’s frozen financial assets, and end both attacks on Iran’s regional allies and threats against the country itself. Only then, he said, would the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil be allowed to reopen.
A Diplomatic Track Suddenly Complicated
The demands landed at a moment when Iran and Oman appeared close to finalizing a technical framework governing ship traffic through the strait, a narrow channel wedged between the two countries that Iran has effectively closed since February, when the United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against it. Zolghadr’s statement upended expectations, built over the preceding week, that a deal with Muscat would soon allow commerce to resume and ease the global energy prices that have weighed on consumers since the war began. The timing also puts new pressure on President Trump, who faces the prospect of elevated gas prices becoming a political liability for Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections.
Iran Signals the Reopening Was Never Close
Even before Zolghadr’s statement, Iranian officials had begun tempering expectations. Hossein Mohebbi, a spokesman for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, said Saturday that reopening the strait was “not contingent on the Iran-Oman negotiations.” Speaking to the Guards-affiliated outlet Tasnim, Mohebbi said the timeline instead depended “on the United States fully accepting Iran’s conditions,” though he declined to detail those conditions beyond insisting that Washington stay out of Iran’s talks with Oman and other countries.
Araghchi Says a Deal With Oman Is Close — But Not Enough
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said separately on Saturday that Tehran and Muscat were “very close” to an agreement on the mechanics of ship traffic, according to Tasnim. But he made clear that a technical arrangement with Oman would not by itself reopen the strait. “The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is contingent on other conditions, including the United States compensating for its violations of the Islamabad Memorandum,” Araghchi said, referring to the ceasefire agreement Tehran and Washington signed in June.
The Collapsed June Ceasefire
That June memorandum, brokered by Pakistani mediators in Islamabad, had called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz alongside a temporary lifting of oil sanctions on Iran. Its language, however, was vague enough that the two sides walked away with competing interpretations. The United States backed a southern shipping route that skirted Oman’s coastline and avoided Iranian waters; Iran responded by warning and then striking ships that used it. The ceasefire collapsed within weeks, and the U.S. reimposed its naval blockade of Iranian ports. “The Americans were seeking to establish new routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and despite the warnings issued by our country, they sought to undermine Iran’s management of the strait,” Araghchi said. “Therefore, any violation of the memorandum of understanding or of Iran’s management of the Strait of Hormuz is absolutely unacceptable to the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Domestic Politics May Be Driving the Rhetoric
Analysts have suggested the hardened public posture from Araghchi and Mohebbi may be aimed as much at domestic audiences as at Washington. Araghchi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have faced sustained criticism from hardliners opposed to any accommodation with the United States. Raz Zimmt, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said the comments reflected Tehran’s view that the Oman talks were meant “at most” to determine how the strait might eventually reopen — not to guarantee that it would. Even a finalized framework with Oman, Zimmt wrote on social media, would not be implemented “without a return to the U.S. commitments under the memorandum, including lifting the naval blockade and resuming the process of sanctions relief.”
Weeks of Progress Toward a Route
The security chief’s demands arrived just days after Tehran and Muscat appeared to be making real headway. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said in an interview that the two countries were nearing a proposed framework covering inbound and outbound shipping lanes, technical arrangements, sovereignty questions, and a joint coordination center to manage maritime traffic. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the two sides had agreed on the geographical coordinates of a safe shipping corridor, with inbound traffic routed through Iranian waters and outbound traffic through Omani waters — an arrangement that would effectively retire the U.S.-backed southern route Iran had targeted earlier in the year. By Wednesday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei described a joint statement as being in its “final drafting stage,” saying talks were “forward-moving” and could produce a deal “if certain third parties do not obstruct this process.”
A Draft Plan Raises Alarms
That optimism was tempered Thursday when Iran’s state-run Fars news agency published a draft plan far more restrictive than what negotiators had signaled. Under the draft, Iran would bar American and Israeli vessels from the strait entirely and block ships from any nation deemed to have “harmed” Iran until compensation was paid, with penalties for violators set at 20 percent of a ship’s cargo value. The document was reportedly under review by Iran’s parliament. Crude prices jumped on the news: Brent crude rose 3.8 percent to close at $82.49 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained roughly 2.8 percent to settle near $77.29, reversing a week-long slide that had followed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s suggestion that a deal allowing unrestricted transit could come within days.
Washington’s Position Hardens
A U.S. official pushed back firmly on the emerging shape of the deal, telling the Washington Post that any temporary shipping routes must be “without any impediments — meaning no approvals or permissions and no tolls or charges,” and insisting that “the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway, and no party controls the lanes or the ability to transit through them.” President Trump has similarly resisted any arrangement seen as handing Iran greater authority over the waterway. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump described the strait as “sort of open right now,” crediting the ongoing U.S. blockade enforcement and saying “I think we’re doing fine,” while adding that an announcement “could be soon.”
Vance Frames the U.S. Leverage
Vice President JD Vance, in an interview with Fox News on Saturday, portrayed the United States as an active party to the broader negotiation even as Iran and Oman work out the details bilaterally, saying talks were in “the middle of the game.” It was not clear whether Vance was aware of Zolghadr’s newly published demands at the time of the interview. “What we’re really working through now is how you can actually set up a traffic scheme so that the ships that pass can pass through safely,” Vance said. “That includes of course demining, but it also includes a commitment from the Iranians that they’re not going to fire at commercial vessels.” Vance did not detail what concessions the U.S. might offer, instead emphasizing what he described as Iran’s weak negotiating position. “They’re hurting in a big way,” he said. “They want this thing to be over. The question is whether they’re able, their system is able, to give the things that are necessary for us to be happy.”
Attacks Continue Even as Talks Proceed
The diplomacy has unfolded against a backdrop of continued violence in the waterway. The United Arab Emirates’ foreign ministry said Saturday that an Iranian attack had struck a tanker belonging to the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company as it crossed the strait. The company disclosed Friday that at least 15 of its vessels have been attacked since the conflict began, resulting in one death and 20 injuries among crew members. Oman’s foreign ministry condemned what it called “repeated attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” calling them a violation of international law and territorial sovereignty, while stating that its negotiations with Iran were “proceeding in a positive and constructive atmosphere” and urging all sides to avoid actions that could derail progress.
Shipping Traffic Remains a Fraction of Normal
The toll on commercial shipping has been severe and largely sustained since the war began in late February. According to the maritime data firm Kpler, just over a dozen ships per day have transited the strait over the past week, compared with an average of roughly 130 daily crossings before the conflict. Traffic fell another 33 percent on a single day this past week compared with the day prior, with most vessels that did cross opting for the newer Iranian-controlled route. Many ships have also switched off the transponders that broadcast their locations to avoid detection by either Iranian or American forces enforcing rival blockades, making precise counts of the crossings difficult to verify.
A Conflict Rooted in February’s Strikes
The current standoff traces back to February 28, when the United States and Israel launched a joint air campaign against Iran that included the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes on Israel, U.S. military bases in the region, and American-allied Gulf states, while the Revolutionary Guards began boarding and attacking merchant vessels and laying sea mines in the strait. The toll from the resulting maritime crisis has included one tugboat sunk, at least 17 merchant ships damaged, two vessels captured, twelve seafarers killed or missing, and a port worker killed in Bahrain. The United States, in turn, blockaded Iranian ports for a six-week stretch in the spring and has periodically threatened further strikes on Iranian infrastructure if the strait was not reopened on Washington’s terms.
Economic Stakes Rising Ahead of the Midterms
The dispute carries direct consequences for American consumers. Gasoline prices climbed sharply during the war’s early months, and analysts have warned that a prolonged closure or a heavily restricted reopening of the strait could keep energy costs elevated well into 2027. With the strait carrying close to a fifth of the world’s petroleum liquids under normal conditions, any disruption reverberates quickly through global oil markets — and, by extension, through the pocketbooks of American voters weighing in on the November midterms. For now, whether Washington will accept anything resembling the terms Zolghadr laid out, or whether Tehran will soften its position once the Oman framework is finalized, remains an open question that neither side has shown signs of resolving quickly.