Iran’s leaders are bracing for a renewed round of conflict whatever the outcome of pivotal elections in the United States and Israel, with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei directing the armed forces on Saturday to answer any threat immediately and prepare to target all types of U.S. and Israeli assets.
The assessment, reported by The New York Times on Oct. 31, comes as Israel faces a political deadlock after its national elections and Democrats appear well positioned to win at least the House in next week’s U.S. midterms. Analysts quoted in the report said Tehran expects little to change in either country’s approach to Iran.
Khamenei Orders “Maximum Deterrence”
On Saturday, Khamenei said on social media that he had met with senior leaders of the armed forces. He directed them to respond to any kind or level of threat with an immediate response in order to establish “maximum deterrence.”
He also directed the forces to be prepared to target all types of U.S. and Israeli assets.
Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Iran’s government has been anticipating renewed fighting for some time. “They have been expecting a new round of war already for a few weeks, and they’ve been preparing accordingly,” Azizi said.
Two Elections, Little Expected Change
In Israel, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right alliance nor the main opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, the country’s former top military official, won enough votes to form a government this week. That sets the stage for weeks of uncertainty.
In the United States, the size of the Democratic win, and whether the party secures a Senate majority, will determine whether Congress can put a brake on President Trump’s policies, including the war with Iran. Tehran, however, expects more attacks regardless of who controls Israel’s government or Congress, and has shown little willingness to make the concessions the Trump administration has demanded to seal a peace deal.
Tehran’s View of Netanyahu
Mohammad Saleh Sedghian, director of the Arab Center for Iranian Studies in Tehran, said Iran would welcome Netanyahu’s removal from power. Netanyahu helped persuade Trump to attack Iran this year and sought to orchestrate new airstrikes on Iran ahead of the Israeli election.
Even so, Sedghian said Iranian leaders believe a change of prime minister would probably have an impact only in the short term. “Iranian and Israeli policies toward each other have remained consistent regardless of which government has been in power in Israel since the 1980s,” he said. “Any changes would likely be temporary rather than strategic.”
Azizi said there are several scenarios for how Israel’s election results could unfold, but that “we should not expect a fundamental change in the hostility between Israel and Iran.” He added that even if Eisenkot or another opposition leader returned Israel to covert tactics instead of all-out war, Iran’s response could still escalate.
“The Islamic Republic’s strategic thinking has undergone a significant shift, involving, first and foremost, a greater willingness to take risks and a move away from its long-established policy of strategic patience,” Azizi said. “As a result, Iran could still respond to indirect Israeli operations through direct military action.”
Diplomacy Under the Shadow of the Midterms
Iran’s leaders are aware that the costs of the war, including higher gasoline prices for Americans, have affected Trump’s popularity and the Republican Party’s midterm prospects. Their assessment appears to be that a deal would benefit Trump politically, which gives Tehran leverage in any negotiations to end the war. Iran has itself borne enormous costs, including worsening inflation, without its leaders changing their stance.
Mostafa Najafi, an analyst said to be close to Mohsen Rezaei, wrote on social media on Wednesday that the Trump administration was pursuing a deal in the days before the midterms. “They want to leverage the agreement for the elections and insist that nuclear concessions also be part of the pre-election deal, which Tehran does not accept,” Najafi wrote. “If no agreement is reached in the next two days, the atmosphere will likely shift toward confrontation in the first week after the elections.”
Last week, Vice President JD Vance sent a letter proposing a new round of comprehensive peace talks, a senior U.S. official and an Iranian official with knowledge of the communication have said. Vance bypassed President Masoud Pezeshkian and Iran’s elected government, addressing the letter instead to Rezaei, the top national security adviser and former longtime commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The approach reflected the administration’s view that it must deal directly with an official who has influence over hard-liners opposed to a deal.
A Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran on Friday for talks, Iran’s state news outlet reported. Qatar has been mediating discussions between Iran and the United States. On Saturday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iranian diplomats were meeting with mediators in Doha and that Iran was reviewing proposals on its nuclear program. He described Vance’s letter as “a positive step.”
Strikes Planned, Obstacles Remain
The diplomacy comes as Trump weighs whether to renew attacks on Iran, potentially after the midterms. U.S. officials and others briefed on the deliberations have said the United States and Israel have drawn up specific plans for new strikes.
Mehrzad Boroujerdi, an Iran expert at Missouri University of Science and Technology, said major gaps remain. “The two sides remain far apart on several critical issues, including the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency and the scope of Iran’s nuclear commitments,” he said. “My sense is that Tehran will pursue a dual-track strategy, engaging in intermittent diplomatic negotiations while simultaneously preparing, to the best of its ability, for a possible resumption of hostilities.”
Iran’s “Seven Conditions”
In his Wednesday post, Najafi said Iran “insists on the fulfillment of its seven conditions” before agreeing to any interim deal. Iranian officials have referred to the conditions often in the past month without fully explaining them, framing them as a prerequisite for new talks or for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
In a voice message, Najafi said the conditions include lifting the U.S. naval blockade on Iran and sanctions on its oil sales, ending the war on all fronts including Lebanon, releasing frozen Iranian assets, and accepting Iran’s management of the strait. “Iran has put forth these to the American side as preconditions for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. “The American side must first fulfill these preconditions, and then the negotiations will enter the main phase.”
Najafi also voiced deep pessimism about a lasting agreement, saying Iranian officials have no trust in American intentions or promises. “The issue of Iran-U.S. relations has become so complex that even if Iran were to agree to nuclear negotiations and make concessions, it is highly unlikely that this tangled web of conflict between the two nations will reach a meaningful resolution or result in a lasting agreement,” he said.